News Analysis
Antonioni's departure a stage for high-powered race
Jason Lefferts JOURNAL CORRESPONDENT

The early stages of the race to replace Sen. Robert Antonioni in this fall's election will start with a dash from candidates seeking support - and cash - from local power brokers, a situation that may give area House members an advantage.

It is expected that the seat will draw a crowd, and three House members in the district have expressed interest in the seat, along with two former public officials.

For the State House veterans, they have the advantage of a money-generating operation in place, and have the proven ability to raise cash, but in some cases will now cross streams that in the past had run parallel to each other.

For incumbent House members, the early part of the campaign may be a highstakes game of chicken, as they gauge each other's strength and assess their odds of success. Losing in the September primary would offer no real chance of winning House re-election, so those House members will need to assess support, funding and other options as they move into the summer and fall.

"(The House and Senate races) run simultaneously. That's ultimately the problem, they have to make a decision what seat they want," said Paul Weizer, a professor of political science at Fitchburg State College. "You're talking about people who all have safe House seats, it's not an easy choice."

The three House members who are interested in the seat bring unique geographic advantages. Rep. Stephen DiNatale (D-Fitchburg) and Rep. Jennifer Flanagan (D-Leominster), have solid bases in the two most populous communities in the district. Rep. Harold Naughton (D-Clinton) is a long-time representative from the district's southern flank, with ties to the rest of the district. Rep. Robert Rice (D-Gardner) said he does not intend to run, but his predecessor Brian Knuuttilla is considering a run coving the western part of the district.

Also considering running are Leominster Mayor Dean J. Mazzarella, Dan Mylott, the former mayor of Fitchburg and a Republican, and Steve Kerrigan, a former Lancaster selectman and Democrat who ran for Congress last year.

Flanagan, who said clearly she is running, may have picked up an early advantage, claiming backing from Antonioni and Worcester District Attorney Joseph Early. Naughton has not committed to a run, but Rice said Wednesday he would back Naughton if Naughton were in the race.

Based on year-end campaign finance reports filed last month, Rep. Stephen DiNatale (D-Fitchburg) holds an early advantage with $21,243 available. DiNatale raised $16,150 last year - a number similar to the other area House members - but spent less than $2,000 last year.

In contrast, Flanagan, raised more than DiNatale last year with $21,281, but spent over $15,000, leaving her with just under $6,000 in the bank. Naughton also outraised DiNatale with a $17,015 effort last year, but spent over $22,000, leaving him with $7,900 available.

"The key for whoever wants to go forward is fundraising," Weitzer said. "They're all Democrats, they all have the same base."

In some cases, potential candidates have received funding from the same donors. For example, both Flanagan and DiNatale received donations last year from Worcester Sheriff Guy Glodis - one of the region's biggest political powerhouses. They also both received donations from Knuuttila, who Rice followed into the House.

Knuuttila is also considering running and formed an exploratory committee this week. He works for Glodis, and Glodis' influence could play a role in determining a leader in the race.

Additionally, when they were working parallel campaigns, DiNatale and Flanagan sometimes crossed fundraising borders with no harm done. Nailing down not only a fundraising base, but also expanding their reach, will be important for candidates.

"It's 11 cities and towns (in the Senate district). That's a lot of mailing, that's a lot of signs," Weitzel said. "That's a pretty daunting task."